In just 24 hours, the situation in Donbas has undergone major changes

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In a little more than two weeks after the Russian army launched a ground attack on Severo Donetsk, Ukraine lost most of its territory in the region. Force to admit Zelensky is that Ukraine suffering heavy losses

The Russian army is so powerful that it has controlled 80% of the territory of Severo Donetsk and blew up three bridges from the city to the outside world, putting the Ukrainian army in the region into a dilemma.

Zelensky attributed the Ukrainian army’s defeat to the lack of weapons and equipment. In a video speech that night, he admitted that the situation in the Donbass had undergone major changes in just 24 hours. The Ukrainian army suffered heavy losses and it is very difficult to resist.

Zelensky once again asked Western allies for help, explicitly asking for modern anti-aircraft weapons and long range weapons.

Azot chemical plant
Azot chemical plant

For the Ukrainian army, the situation in Severo-Donetsk was not optimistic. The Russian army took advantage of the victory to advance, constantly shrinking the “encirclement circle” and approaching the remaining Ukrainian forces.

At this time, scene is very similar to the battle with Mariupol 

According to the latest reports, the Ukrainian army stationed in Severo-Donetsk was driven into the Azot Chemical Plant, where it attempted to depend on it to resist, emulating the war scenario at the Azov Steel Plant and holding it off for a long time. The Russian army is searching for a breakthrough in the mutual consumption process.

Could it be that the next Azov steel plant?

As we all know, the Azov Iron and Steel Plant has a very solid structure. Even if the Russian army sent “Backfire” bombers to carry out carpet bombing on it, it failed to break through and could only use siege tactics. But even so, the Ukrainian army also supported a Months later, they finally surrendered to the Russian army one after another.

Can Azote Chemicals last a month? It’s unlikely.

First of all, the internal environment of the Azov chemical plant is not the same as that of the Azov steel plant. The Azov Steel Plant is a well-known strong fortress with six floors in total. The internal environment of the factory is complex, like a “maze”, and it has layers of defense facilities, which can even resist small nuclear strikes.

Azov steel plant
Azov steel plant

But Azote Chemical is not. The Azote Chemical Plant did not consider the element of wartime defense too much in the design. Due to the convenience of the workers, the structure of the plant is not complicated. Although it has an underground bomb shelter, the cave is already full of civilians fleeing. , the room for play is very limited.

Secondly, the Azov Chemical Plant does not have a large amount of weapons and ammunition like the Azov Steel Plant. According to the inspection results disclosed by the Russian side, although the Ukrainian army supported the Azov steel plant for a month, during which the two sides exchanged fire from time to time, after the Ukrainian army surrendered, the Azov steel plant was empty. Many destructive weapons aided by the West were still found in the steel mill, which shows that the Ukrainian army’s artillery fire in the steel mill was sufficient, which is also the basis for their stubborn resistance.

The Azot Chemical Plant obviously does not have such an advantage. During the initial days of the war in Mariupol, the Russian army repeatedly bombed the railways and other transportation and supply lines in Ukraine. Now the supply line between the Ukrainian army in Severo Donetsk and Lisichansk has been cut off, which means that it is difficult to transport reinforcements or weapons, so the ammunition of the Ukrainian army in the Azot Chemical Plant will be empty soon.

Finally, the Azot chemical plant lacks layers of defense and is not as strong as the Azov steel plant. Although there are some chemical facilities and industrial equipment in the Azot Chemical Plant, which can provide natural shelter for the Ukrainian army who are defending it to a certain extent, out of fear of the leakage of chemicals in the plant, the Russian army should not be like attacking Azov. Like the steel mills, it was bombarded fiercely.

All in all, the disadvantage of this chemical plant is very obvious. It lacks both solid fortifications and complex internal structures. There are not enough weapons to help the Ukrainian army maintain the status quo. As a result, these Ukrainian troops have only two ways to go. , either could not hold on until the Russian army broke through, or voluntarily surrendered and became a prisoner like the soldiers in the Azov steel factory.

Azov steel plant soldiers surrender
Azov steel plant soldiers surrender

The situation in Donbas, which has attracted much attention, has undergone three major changes in just 24 hours.

1. It is not far from the Russian army occupying the entire Donbas.

Today, 97% of the territory of Luhansk is under the control of the Russian army, while 80% of Severo-Donetsk has fallen into the hands of the Russian army. The Russian army occupies several fortresses in Donbas, cutting off the communication between the Ukrainian army in various regions. Contact, the original large number of Ukrainian troops became scattered, easy to defeat one by one.

Even if the Azov Chemical Plant becomes the last stronghold of the Ukrainian army in Severo-Donetsk like the Azov Steel Plant, it is impossible for the Russian army to take more effort than the Azov Steel Plant. The Russian army can copy it completely. The experience of the Mariupol War, besieged without attacking, and waited until the people inside could not hold on.

2. The possibility of the Ukrainian counter-attack taking the Donbas becomes even lower.

Zelensky also said a few days ago that he wanted to retake the Donbas and Crimea. Now it seems that, let alone Crimea, the Ukrainian army even has a problem with keeping the existing positions in the Donbas. The reason why the army cut off the supply line is that the Ukrainian army is facing many problems.

Logistics can not keep up is only one, and the second is that the Ukrainian army cannot meet with the large army. They can only fight with the Russian army in the city while collecting scattered soldiers along the way. Such an army, whether it is combat effectiveness or cohesion, is comparable to that of the established system. The bulk of the Russian army formed a sharp contrast. In addition, most of the Donbas had been lost, and the Ukrainian army was refreshed, and the possibility of counterattack was even lower.

3. Zelensky asked for Western aid, but in Donbas, even receiving aid may not be able to turn the tide.

Zelensky is always habitually looking for a breakthrough in firepower. When the Azov Steel Plant was besieged by the Russian army, Zelensky also sought assistance everywhere, but the fact was that at that time, except for the “isolated island” of the Azov Steel Plant In addition, the entire Mariupol is controlled by the Russian army. Even if Ukraine has weapons, it is difficult to send them to the front line to solve the urgent needs of the steel mill.

The current situation is similar. With 80% of the territory of North Donetsk already under the control of the Russian army, the channel for assistance is no longer there, and the Azot chemical plant, which is surrounded by regiments, will most likely become the possession of the Russian army.

In addition, because the Ukrainian side condemned the fierce offensive of the Russian army, it made it difficult for the local civilians to evacuate. Now the Russian side has stated that it will quickly set up a humanitarian corridor to help the people in the Azot chemical plant evacuate.

A very familiar scene. According to the experience of the Azov Steel Plant, when the people in the chemical plant are completely evacuated, the Russian army’s offensive against the Azote Chemical Plant may increase. The army may not last for a month, and the situation in Donbas will become clearer as the conflict continues.

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