How much time will Putin take to end the Russia-Ukraine War?

03bf25904902492c832a33d11d6dbd1e
Share

Today the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has entered the 162nd day. In the past 161 days, the special military operations carried out by the Russian army against Ukraine has got several twists and turns. In other places, to the concentration of troops to attack Mariupol and Luhansk, the Russian army’s tactics also changed a lot in this ongoing war.

Since the start of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in the last days of February this year, Ukraine has lost more than 9 million people. Some of these Ukrainians have fled to Poland, some have gone to Romania, and some have gone to Russia, Slovakia and other countries. For a country with a population of only more than 40 million, this loss is nearly a quarter, which will have a large impact on Ukraine’s future.

So far, artillery battles between the forces of Russia and Ukraine have broken out in Bakhmut, Siversk and other places in Donetsk, and the fighting has not stopped in the direction of Kherson, Odessa, and Nikolayev.

Although the Russian army has the upper hand on the battlefield in several areas, it is not something that can be accomplished in the short term to win Nikolayev, Odessa and Donetsk, which makes people wonder: How much time will Putin take to end the Russia-Ukraine War?

Well, we may find the answer of this question from the European Union!

At present, the European Union and Russia are fighting fiercely over the natural gas issue. Of course, Russia does not want to lose the EU market, but Russia also does not want the EU to have enough natural gas reserves to continue to fight against Russia.

It is very beneficial for Russia to reduce gas deliveries to the EU and allow the EU to cool down a bit in the autumn and winter. But if the EU does not compromise because of low gas volumes, then Russia will have to end the Russian-Ukrainian conflict as soon as possible. Because if the EU really gets rid of Russia’s natural gas and oil, it means that the confrontation between Russia and the EU will exceed cooperation in the future, which is not a good thing for the EU, but it is also a kind of pressure for Russia.

So what role did the European Union is playing in the Russia-Ukraine conflict?

Some people ridiculed that the war between Russia and Ukraine is like a show where the United States and Russia join forces to bring down the European Union. Although this is impossible, the established consequences do have this tendency.

First, at the beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the EU resolutely sided with the United States after “hesitating for a moment”. At the beginning, France and Germany still wanted to mediate, but because of the strong intervention of the United States, Ukraine no longer believed in the EU, but sided with the side of the United States, and the swaying position of the EU did not win the trust of Russia, marginalized in the dominance of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

Second, the EU, which was conservative at the beginning, has slowly became radical. Many countries have begun to support Ukraine with advanced weapons and equipments, and have also supported billions of euros in economic aid, which is very important to maintain the rule of the Kyiv authorities. Just as the EU has begun to take an increasingly hard-line anti-russian stance, the exchanges between the EU and Russia are also decreasing, and the confrontation is escalating.

Third, the European Union has now completely become a pawn of the United States in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. To maintain its world hegemony, the United States definitely needs the cooperation of Europe. This time, European affairs have allowed the United States to squeeze in smoothly, and even dominate the position of the European Union. The U.S. clearly has nothing to lose. The problem is that in this context, the EU has lost its independence and is in a “loss” state whether in the field of security, diplomacy or energy.

It can be seen that the EU plays the role of the United States in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, but for the United States, an obedient EU is indispensable. If the EU gets rid of its dependence on the United States because of energy or security interests, then the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will have big changes after that.

If the EU chooses to be neutral, then the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will last much longer, because the pressure on Europe facing Russia is reduced, and with the support of the United States alone, Ukraine’s resistance capacity will definitely shrink, and Russia may expand the war to control more and more large areas of the Ukrainian territory.

The EU’s opposition or the EU’s reduced dependence on Russian energy will theoretically prompt Russia to end the Russian-Ukrainian conflict faster and make Russia make a more conservative choice.

Just imagine, if Europe and the United States did not intervene in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the Russian army might not withdraw from the Kyiv and Sumy areas, and the resistance of the Ukrainian army would soon be disintegrated without external support. Although the United States supports the Ukrainian Army with weapons and equipments, the EU’s solidarity with Ukraine has also greatly helped Ukraine’s will to resist.

So, is it possible for the European Union to completely get rid of its energy dependence on Russia?

Rather than discussing whether the EU will get rid of its dependence on Russian gas, let’s talk about the dangers which the EU will have to face for not buying Russian gas!

First, if the EU does not import natural gas from Russia, but instead buys LNG (Liquefied natural gas), it will inevitably increase the cost of living for the EU people. There is no doubt about this. This initiative to increase the cost of living will inevitably lead to dissatisfaction among the people. It can also lead to a economic crisis in the European Union.

Second, the current EU uses natural gas for power generation, heating, and industrial manufacturing. If natural gas is not available, then the EU can only use coal and nuclear energy. Nuclear energy is risky and extremely costly, and coal will pollute the environment. The EU will definitely reverse and overthrow the previous established goals and commitments naturally to reduce their credibility.

To a certain extent, the EU must measure the pros and cons. Is it worth to lose so much for Ukraine? After all, if Ukraine chooses neutrality afterwards, or does not want to join NATO, and does not make a high-profile announcement day and night to secede from Russian influence, the conflict itself can be avoided.

Third, the EU’s manufacturing industry will be affected. With the increase in energy costs, the competitiveness of industrial products within the EU will also decline. Whether it will cause the EU’s economic regression is a big question mark. The European Union must always remember the following truth.

“Far away water cannot quench immediate thirst”

If you don’t want to buy cheap and easily transportable natural gas from Russia, can you afford to buy costly American gas?

Leave a Reply