Can Finnish armed forces withstand against Russia

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Russia is scared of Finland’s army? The flames were stoked by foreign media: Let the horses over, 200,000 Russian warriors have been buried.

Finland, with a population of 5.5 million people, will swiftly construct a larger army than a country of comparable size in a state of war. Approximately 900,000 Finnish reserves are ready to fight.

This means that when Finland joins NATO and fights Russia in the future, the Finnish army will be able to withstand Russian military deterrence and strategy. Furthermore, the reports stated that the headline was even more overstated, namely, “What does the Finnish army have to fear Russia?” Between the lines,   complete trust in the Finnish armed forces was expressed.

On March 24, former NATO military chief and Supreme Allied Commander in Europe James Stavridis tweeted: “A Finnish officer has threatened Putin if Finland joins NATO. Reaction: Two hundred thousand Russians’ skeletons were once buried beneath Finland’s cold plains. Come on! You are welcome to join your forefathers and mothers.”

Serving NATO And The Navy, James Stavridis Looked To These Leaders For Lessons | On Point
Former NATO military chief and Supreme Allied Commander in Europe, James Stavridis.

As a result of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the Finnish government, which had been hesitant to join NATO, has lately stated on the subject. That is, the Finnish government believes that joining NATO is important to safeguard Finland’s national security and citizens’ rights and interests. The unanimity of opinion extends from the country’s president and prime minister to regular citizens. The United Kingdom, the United States, and other countries voiced their hearty welcome in response to the Finnish government’s olive branch. On the 12th, NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg emphasized that if Finland submits a valid application, the membership procedure will be exceptionally quick and painless. Consider it a “particular case.”

NATO - Opinion: Press conference by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg following the meeting of NATO Ministers of Foreign Affairs, 23-Mar.-2021
Jens Stoltenberg

In response to Finland’s plan, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov has taken a more moderate stance toward the outside world, but Russia’s current first deputy UN envoy Dmitry Polyansky has stated that if Finland joins NATO with Sweden, it will be unavoidable. The Russian army has turned its attention to the ground. In other words, the storm is approaching.

Surprisingly, foreign media reported on the 14th that Turkey, a NATO member, had flatly rejected this. Turkish President Erdogan indicated that the reason for the support was that Finland and Sweden were behind it. Turkey’s move, however, is not motivated by a desire to see the regional security situation worsen. It simply wants to shift positions between NATO and Russia to obtain greater leverage.

For Russia, the joining of NATO by Sweden and Finland will further deteriorate its geopolitical situation and national defense security. For example, the Baltic Sea will undoubtedly become NATO’s “inland sea”. St. Petersburg, the second-largest city in the country, and Murmansk Port, the largest port on the coast of the Arctic Ocean, will face military pressure from NATO.

In addition, NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg has previously stated that nuclear weapons can be deployed close to the Russian border. Although the Polish government expressly welcomes it, Finland may also become one of the ideal deployment locations, thus incurring Russian concerns. The violent reaction is also reasonable.

The most crucial point is that what kind of countermeasures Russia adopts to this matter is particularly important. In terms of energy, Russia does not have much leverage. For example, the natural gas usage quota required by Finland is only 5% of Russia’s. Moreover, when Russia resorted to the “Ruble Settlement Order”, the ultimate move Afterwards, the Finnish government expressed its clear rejection, so Russia launched a counterattack in this area with little success. Moving to the military aspect, Russia is also not optimistic. Although its overall military strength is crushing Finland, it has also stated that Finland will become a “potential strike opponent”.

But once the war ends, Russia will inevitably fall into the dead-end of “two-front warfare”, and will face multiple pressures that are larger and wider than before. Therefore, in the face of this almost unsolvable entanglement, what will Russia do? To counteract or even resolve the deterrence, you need to think carefully and take action carefully!

 

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